Friday, June 27, 2008


The Worst 10 Years, Part 2

A few years back I figured out how badly the stock market would have to perform for 2000-2010 to be the worst 10 years on record for the American stock market. At that time, it didn't have to do particularly well to avoid making the record books.

With the market's recent downswing, the possibility has become much more likely. We're almost exactly 1.75 years from the 10 year anniversary all time high of the S&P 500 index, 1527.46 on March 24, 2000. Today the S&P 500 is around 1282. To avoid being the worst 10 year span, the S&P needs to stand at 1715 in 21 months. That's a gain of 33.8% and an annualized gain of 18.1%.

Steven Pearlstein seems to think we may be headed for the record books, judging based on the headline, "This Recession, It's Just Beginning," of his WaPo column.

Maybe now's a good time to tell you about a new retirement plan I'm pushing. It's called "cash-in-a-mattress," and you can read all about it in my new book of the same name. It's available from Harper & Row for the low low price of $39.95 hardcover.

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